On the day thousands of Iranians celebrated the 36th anniversary of the destruction of the US embassy by burning the American flag, chanting ‘Death to America’ and ‘Down with Israel,’ I decided to review the Iran deal as it’s been reported thus far.
Most people around the world believe the Iranian nuclear deal is a done deal because that’s the impression given by media reports however it is not a ‘deal’ at all. In fact it’s not even an agreement. A contract, deal, or agreement would have legal ramifications. The ‘arrangement’ with Iran is really nothing more than a set of ‘understandings’ without backing of any jurisprudence which is a clear way out for Iran should the Ayatollahs decide not to follow through on Iran’s commitments. But Iran also has a second exit strategy and it’s found in Islamic law. Your see, under Islamic law it is permissible for Muslims to lie, cheat and deceive the infidels and anyone who does not embrace Islam is an infidel. Could it be any clearer?
Point number two is that most people may be surprised to hear that the nuclear deal has not yet been accepted by all parties! The P5+1 countries have approved it though not without political chicanery in Washington D.C. but that’s another story. No one is really sure this ‘deal’ was analyzed and soberly discussed by the EU nations but that, too, is another story. Unbelievably it is Iran who has not yet given approval to the deal! Could they possibly be hoping for a sweeter package?
Nevertheless, come December 15th sanction measures will be lifted and the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) will report whether or not Iran has implemented its obligations under the ‘deal.’ The Iranian parliament is leisurely awaiting the approval by Iran’s Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah Khamenei. Nothing is going to happen without the Supreme Leader’s approval and his rhetoric has been quite negative if not bellicose so far.
At this point no one knows if the deal will go through but many are deeply concerned and with good reason. After all, Iran’s leaders are not known for being people who exemplify honesty and integrity. The world-wide media is reporting the politically correct party line that Iran has, or will, go through with the deal. Problem is Islamic law allows them to make promises and then renege without any moral or legal consequences.
Power and authority in Iran are vested solely in the Iran’s supreme religious leader, the Ayatollah Khamenei. The Iranian parliament is unable to pass anything that is not first approved by the Supreme Leader Khamenei and, according to a recent report, the Supreme Leader is demanding nine new conditions. These new stipulations represent obstacles that require more time to execute thus giving Iran more time before the IAEA inspections begin to continue the business of concealing the nuclear infrastructure they have been secretly building for years. As it presently stands, it will take months for Iran to execute the conditions already stated in the nuclear understanding. Both the Iranian parliament speaker and Iran’s President Rouhani plan to (must) comply with the Supreme Leader’s demands. Regardless of the Iranian parliament’s decision on the deal, Khamenei can bypass their decision and stop any deal from being implemented. Even if Iran’s parliament approves the nuclear deal by December 15 and initiates the minimal compliance expectations, implementation has no timeline. It would be foolhardy for the U.S. to lift sanctions under these partial conditions. A better and safer deal would be for Iran’s compliance to come first before any sanctions whatsoever are lifted.
The important message here is that the deal is not yet finalized. There is still a window of opportunity to re-think whatever thinking when in to hammering out this nuclear understanding which is very shortsighted regarding its long-range ramifications for the United States, Israel and the whole of the Middle East.
What does this mean in the short term? Iran’s lollygagging seems to be a bid for extra time to hide their fiendish activities, namely acquiring nuclear weapons and/or continuing to build their nuclear infrastructure beyond what would be considered for peaceful purposes, which may be affected by the implementation of the deal because with it comes inspections … sort of. Iran continues to be forceful in the new demands being set forth by the Ayatollah. As master negotiators totally practiced in the art of deception, Tehran knows that, given time, Washington will cave in and fold. President Obama desperately wants a legacy to mark his presidency and he seems to want to hang his hat on achieving a nuclear ‘deal’ with Iran even though it won’t be worth the paper on which it’s written.
Reprinted with author’s permission from The Jerusalem Post