The title of this article might come across as rather condescending. After all, who am I to say what Bibi will or won’t do? But if you read this piece with an open mind, you might just realize that my ‘crazy’ hypothesis is actually entirely plausible and logical.
An unexpected premise
No- Prime Minister Netanyahu will not annex the Jordan Valley. And we know this because he keeps promising to do so.
And no, I’m not being sarcastic or facetious. I’m simply stating my conclusions following years of tracking Netanyahu’s political behavior.
A Method to his Madness
What most people don’t realize about Netanyahu is that when he takes action, he never talks about it beforehand. On the other hand, when he continuously promises something, it never comes to fruition.
Case in point – Khan Al-Akhmar
Netanyahu promised in November 2018 that the illegal Arab village of Khan Al-Akmar “will be evacuated soon”. Later on in April of 2019, Netanyahu again vowed to destroy Khan Al-Akhmar saying: “will happen very soon, as soon as possible. I promised and it will happen”.
Fast forward to 2020 and take a guess which village in the Jordan Valley (that Netanyahu keeps promising to annex) is still standing?… If you said ‘Khan Al-Akmar’, you might be starting to understand Netanyahu.
Not just Khan Al-Akhmar
How many times did Bibi promise to bring down Hamas rule in Gaza before he was (re) elected in 2013? Enough times that the internet made countless compilation videos of Bibi promising to squash Hamas and end the reign of rockets in Israel’s south. These endless promises have literally become a meme.
Then of course there’s the countless times Bibi has threatened that whoever attacks Israel will be dealt a strong blow. Um, newsflash – Iran through it’s Hezbollah (and Hamas) proxies have been attacking Israel for quite some time now and has yet to experience this ‘blow’ you keep speaking of.
The opposite is also true
On the other hand, whatever Bibi actually does, he won’t talk about beforehand. His actions always come as a surprise. He never spoke about giving away most of Hebron before signing the Wye accords back in 1998. He never spoke endlessly about destroying Migron or Ofra. He just did it. He never promised to destroy outposts like Kumi Uri and arrest settler teenagers on trumped up charges. He just does it without any promises or even prior warning.
That’s why his main election rival, Benny Gantz, who despite being considered more to the ‘left’ of Netanyahu challenged Bibi to make good on his promise to annex the Jordan Valley with complete confidence. For good measure, Gantz even added that he will go along with annexation as head of the opposition. Does this mean that Gantz wants to annex the Jordan Valley unilaterally? Of course not. He’s just having fun embarrassing Bibi and calling his bluff.
That’s because Gantz, (unlike many of Natanyahu’s supporters) knows that once Bibi talks the talk, he is incapable of walking the walk.
The bottom line
So if you got your hopes up about annexation, sorry to burst your bubble. But a burst bubble before elections is better than a broken heart after them.